In the last chance saloon, Billy Dib hopes to rise again

Copyright: Lonsdale London

* MAYWEATHER-PACQUIAO PREVIEW/ANALYSIS

Billy 'The Kid’ Dib may have just arrived at the last chance saloon.

If he fails in his opportunity at a world title on Friday night, who knows if he'll get another.

That may make him a desperate man, but he shouldn't be.

Desperation is what has cost him in the past.

Dib has a huge heart and that sometimes is his problem. He uses it more than his head on occasion.

At the end of the day it isn't the toughest fighter who reins supreme, it's often the smartest.

Previously in Dib's opportunities at a world title he has been too desperate to impress.

Many wrote him off after his comprehensive points defeat at the hands of Steven Leuvano in 2008. 

The loss saw him dropped by Golden Boy Promotions and forced back home to Australia and the drawing board.

To his credit, he did the work, made the changes and took the long road back to the top.

The IBF Featherweight World Title signaled his return to the big stage in July 2011.

He was snapped up by SMS Promotions, with Curtis ’50 Cent’ Jackson calling the shots.

The US market is notoriously tough to break and Billy had been granted a second opportunity at it.

A big world title defence against Evgeny Gradovich, beamed around the globe on ESPN, and Dib wanted to make up for lost time.

He wanted to show he was an action packed fighter made for the USA that would get TV sets and turnstiles spinning. He traded shots with Gradovich willingly, only to lose the title.

He showed us his heart and his underappreciated chin and won admirers, but at the end of the day he lost the fight and his title, because he went away from his strengths.

Dib’s best asset is his speed, silky boxing skills and his ringmanship. He used angles well and is hard to hit, yet in the Gradovich fights he was more focused on putting on a show by trading bombs.

Hearing Dib speak in the lead up to this fight it's good to hear he's learnt those lessons. He’s returned home, worked on his skills and waited for the next opportunity at redemption.

It's a credit to his team for getting this fight as I think it's a very winnable one.

That's not to say it will be easy.

Takashi Miura has lost just once in six years, twice in his entire career.

He’s heavy handed and can finish a fight within the distance, which he’s managed in over 65% of his fights.

Miura is also quite good technically, and he’s a southpaw, making him an awkward opponent for Dib.

The champion has just fought once outside Japan in his career, highlighting his comfort on home soil.

Dib’s shot at the title will be available all around Australia on free-to-air television. It’s an opportunity many fighters will be envious of. It is the first world title fight on Channel 9 in 25 years and harks back to the days of a man close to Dib, Jeff Fenech.

It was Fenech who made himself a household name back in 1985 when we won the IBF World Bantamweight Title against Japanese fighter, Satoshi Shingaki, as an underdog.

Dib has the same opportunity against another Japanese champion on Friday evening in Tokyo.

Dib also has the opportunity to do something Fenech never did, claim the WBC Super Featherweight Title, after Fenech was robbed of the green belt following a controversial draw against Azumah Nelson in 1991.

Dib has the chance to right the wrong and finally bring it back to Australia for his close friend.

Going to Japan and getting a decision will be difficult and Dib will have to be at his best. He will have to dominate the fight and win close to every round. 

He’s the underdog, but some will say it’s been that way his entire career. 

Many write him off, expecting him to fall short. 

But often fighters at the last chance saloon bring their very best, and in the land of the rising sun, Billy Dib may yet rise again.

The Fight of the Century: MAYWEATHER-PACQUIAO PREVIEW

Floyd Mayweather meets Manny Pacquiao at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas on Sunday (EST time) in the ‘Fight of the Century’, with the mantle of the best fighter on the planet up for grabs.

Personal vendettas, legal troubles, contractual disputes and the sizeable ego’s of all involved have been overcome. The pair will finally go toe to toe in front of the world.

I’ve written over 30 articles on this fight over the journey and now that it is finally here it’s hard to find something that hasn’t already been said.

All along I’ve tipped a Mayweather victory and I will not waiver from that ahead of the fight. I just believe he is a superior fighter.

He’s yet to taste defeat in 47 fights and he has been in there with the very best.

His resume reads like a list of a Hall of Fame class. Corrales, Gatti, Judah, De La Hoya, Hatton, Marquez, Mosley, Cotto, Alvarez. It is some record.  

Many fighters have been touted as the one to stop ‘Money’ Mayweather, but up until now no one has managed to find a way. It’s hard to find a Mayweather fight in recent years that wasn’t mostly one sided, with a split decision win over Oscar De La Hoya the only exception. 

Cotto and Maidana put him under pressure to an extent, but his victories over Hatton, Marquez, Mosley and Alvarez were comprehensive.

    

Some say his biggest weakness is against pressure fighters, others say he struggles with southpaws.  Well, Manny Pacquiao is both, but it doesn’t guarantee him victory.

Pacquiao is expected to bring an all action style. But so did Cotto, Marquez and Alvarez. Mayweather was too slick for all of them.

Mayweather recently defeated Marcos Maidana, a relentlessly come forward fighter, often at his detriment.  Maidana certainly brought the pressure, but Mayweather never lost his composure. He let rounds slip, and fell behind on the scorecard, but as soon as Maidana tired, he picked him to pieces.

Whilst Mayweather is coming off back to back wins over Maidana, Pacquiao is coming off a one sided win over Chris Algieri. So one sided that Pacquiao scored six knockdowns over the 12 rounds. 

He looked very good, but was it really a test.

Pacquiao has knock out power in both hands and we’ve seen him flick the switch on some of the sport’s biggest names. Knockout is his best chance of victory, but he needs to be careful himself. 

Whilst Mayweather is undefeated, Pacquiao has lost three times in his career. The Filipino suffered back to back losses in 2012, which shows there are chinks in his armour.

He loves to let his hands go, but as a result he can be a little reckless. We saw him knocked out at the hands of Juan Manuel Marquez in that fashion. Mayweather doesn’t regularly end a fight early, but he’ll latch onto even the slightest opening. Pacquiao needs to pick his moments and establish his jab before looking for the big shots.

It’s Pacquiao’s fights with Marquez that are the most telling and give us the best indication of what can trouble the Filipino. The pair has met four times across their careers, the fights almost all close and controversial decisions.

Marquez has power and uses angles well, he gives as good as he gets, and has shown us that Pacquiao can struggle when he is not able to force the pressure as he likes and when beaten to the punch.

Mayweather has never been knocked out in his 47 fight career, and has only ever been knocked down on one occasion, a flash knockdown against Carlos Hernandez back in 2001. It was the only round Mayweather lost that night.

In more recent times, we’ve seen him rocked by Shane Mosley in the opening round of their fight in 2010. This time, Mayweather didn’t go down, but similarly he won ever ensuing round of the fight.

Knockout may be Pacquiao’s best method of victory, and he is certainly capable, but finding Mayweather’s chin is another story entirely.    

I expect Mayweather to fight, as he normally does, on the outside. He’ll use his defensive skills to keep the Filipino at range and counter punch. He won’t risk coming forward and into the clutches of Pacquiao.   

Mayweather must match the intensity of Pacquiao early. Pacquiao likes to dictate and Mayweather can’t allow that to happen right off the bat. Mayweather can’t start slow like he did in the first fight with Maidana. He was caught behind early on the scorecards and only managed to wrestle control back in the back end of the fight. Pacquiao won’t afford him the same luxury.

Mayweather must bank rounds early and not let it slip. He finishes well and always comes homes stronger in the final rounds. On the flip side Pacquiao will look to start fast and seize control. He'll look for a big punch early. 

If he wins the early rounds that will force Mayweather to chance his arm as the fight progresses. This is exactly what the Filipino wants. It means Floyd has to let his hands go and press the fight and that brings a knockout into the equation.

This could be a fight for the ages and I hope it lives up to the hype. Styles make fights and this one will hopefully be a fight we remember for a long time.

Pacquiao is the biggest test Mayweather has had in his career. But I think its a test he passes, just. 

PREDICTION: MAYWEATHER by decision

Even on its biggest night, boxing makes the same mistakes

It is the fight that is meant to save Boxing, and as one of its biggest fans, I hope it does, but the fact the public have been priced out of witnessing the ‘fight of the century’, shows everything currently wrong with the sport.

What a way to reward fight fans for their patience. Increase pay-per-view costs and ensure that the general public can’t even find their way into the arena to witness it.

We’re a week or so out from fight night and you still can’t buy a ticket, even if you could afford it.  

Sure if I was in the position to hand over $250,000 for a ringside seat, I would, but let’s face it, writing about the sport I love hasn’t exactly made me that rich.

Instead I’ve been the guy watching every Mayweather and Pacquiao fight over the last 10 years.

Yes, every one.

 I witnessed the great nights - Cotto, Canelo and Marquez, to the not so great - Ortiz, Rios and Algieri.

I’ve seen it all, as have millions around the world.

I’m glad they’re finally squaring off, but honestly the fight should have happened years ago.

The only reason it didn’t, was greed.

No one was willing to put everything on the line to see who was the better man and boxing lost in the process.

Instead we had two men, claiming to be the best, fighting boxers generally under the same promotional stable as themselves. 

Pacquiao almost exclusively with Top Rank and Mayweather almost exclusively with Golden Boy.

 Whilst they were both winning, we kept paying to see it, hoping the gripping narrative would one day lead into a battle for the ages.

But then it didn’t.

Instead, both sides were content to continue fighting guys that at times weren’t in the same weight division, let alone the same calibre.  

Ageing fighters were trumpeted as a real threat and countless others ready to shock the world.

Sure we had some good fights, but others left a bitter taste.

That’s not how it was done in days gone by.

Ali-Frazier wasn’t about getting rich. It was about two men lacing the gloves and finding out who was the best. Sure, both were handsomely paid in the process, but a want to reign supreme ran through the veins of both men.

Mayweather-Pacquiao isn’t happening because both men finally found a sense of ambition, its happening because there were simply no other options.

Mayweather is still undefeated at 47-0 and has cast aside all the greats. De La Hoya, Mosley, Marquez, Cotto, even the next great hope in Canelo, plus Maidana, Guerrero and Ortiz, all world champions.

Next in line for a fight was probably Amir Khan, had Pacquiao not agreed terms.

But Khan has lost two of his last six fights. He’s flashy, yet his chin is questionable. He needs to topple a big name before he lands his big shot.

The boxing public aren’t ready to give it to him either. He lost out to Marcos Maidana in a twitter popularity poll when Mayweather was deciding his most recent opponent.

Pacquiao has also beaten the greats. De La Hoya, Mosley, Cotto, Marquez, plus throw in Bradley, Margarito and Marco Antonio Barrera, all big names.

But recently the Filipino has been giving us the short straw. 

Fights with Brandon Rios and Chris Algieri resembled PR exercises in the hope of restoring the Pacquiao brand to its former heights. He won both easily, knocking Algieri down six times in his most recent.

In the meantime Mixed Martial Arts has exploded, spearheaded by the UFC.

There’s no denying MMA has picked up many a disillusioned boxing fan, as well as those who kept the faith, but are now happy to pay to watch both, like myself.

The man pulling the strings, Dana White, a big boxing fan, knows how to sell a fight.

The UFC offers the best against the best. No questions asked.

Sure, when you’ve got nearly every star in the MMA business under your stable, it’s easy to do, but the formula is still relatively simple.

Give the fans what they want.

Dana White is described by some as a promotional genius, but he simply services the fans needs.  

“We didn’t buy this (UFC) to make billions of dollars. We saw something in this sport and in the fighters that we thought was incredible. We thought if we got it to the mainstream people would enjoy it,” says White.  

Such a trait isn’t unique to fans of Mixed Martial Arts. It is also the fundamental appeal of boxing. 

Some say Mayweather-Pacquiao is the biggest fight of all, yet it will be held in a 16,000 seat arena.

Sure it’s supply and demand in business, but there’s something not quite right in limiting the supply and then charging over 100 times what you have previously, in a sport where you’re lucky fans are still around.

Nearly every set of eyes on the planet will be glued to Mayweather-Pacquiao on May 2. But what boxing needs to be concerned about is what happens next.

Who are the new stars that you will look to in the future?

Who will pick up the baton when Mayweather and Pacquiao call it a day?

Wouldn’t it be a great opportunity to sell these future stars to the billions of fans watching, particularly those watching your sport for the first time?

You’d think so. But look at the undercard and tell me if you think it’s worthy.

Both men are expected to make over $100 million for this fight, and fair play to them.

They’ll walk out rich men, win or lose, as will the managers, promoters, TV companies and many at the pointy end of the sport.

But once again it’s the fans that are asked to dig that little bit deeper.

Even on its grandest night, Boxing is still punching itself in the face.

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Red hot free agent: Is WWE champion Brock Lesnar returning to the UFC?

Brock Lesnar (5-3) could once again find a home in the UFC's Octagon.

Rumours are swirling around the internet that Lesnar, the former UFC heavyweight champion, could make his return to the Nevada-based promotion later this year.

According to a report in the Wrestling Observer Newsletter, the UFC are considering booking Lesnar in a trilogy fight against his arch rival Frank Mir (17-9) if they can acquire the hottest free agent in combat sports.

Lesnar, the current WWE champion, certainly set tongues wagging last weekend when he made an unannounced appearance at UFC 184.

Without saying a single word or throwing a single punch, Lesnar sent the thousands inside the Staples Center in Los Angeles and millions on social media into a frenzy.

What was Lesnar doing there? Well that's the multi-million dollar question.

The 37 year old is the hottest property in combat sports, and his WWE contract is set to expire at midnight on March 31 (AEST).

Lesnar has a cushy deal with the elite pro wrestling promotion, drawing a remarkable salary for what is essentially a part time schedule.

With a dream contract on the table, many suspected that Lesnar would re-up with WWE for a few more years, but now it seems that negotiations between both parties have gone south.

Last week, the WWE promoted Lesnar to appear on their Monday Night Raw broadcast on social media 20 minutes before air time, but Lesnar never appeared on the episode. Reports are varied, but all say the former NCAA Division I champion wrestler walked out, not happy with how negotiations on a new deal were progressing.

At UFC 184 those negotiations became very public. A coy UFC president Dana White later said that Lesar "was in town and wanted to come see the fight" at the post-fight press conference, but many believe that there's more to the story.

The Lesnar-UFC rumours have failed to go away and recent months have only further fuelled them. Whether or not both sides will ever come together again is up in the air at this stage, but it's very clear that there's money to be made if Lesnar wanted to make one final run in the sport.

The 6'3" and 283 pound (128kg) behemoth is a bona fide box office draw. Look no further than the fact that all four of the blockbuster events headlined by Lesnar capped $1 million buys on pay-per-view in North America alone.

UFC aren't the only promotion fighting for Lesnar's signature though - Bellator MMA, the UFC's biggest competitor, have thrown their name in the hat as well.

Bellator are a significantly smaller that the UFC. They have a limited amount of world-ranked fighters, typically host all their events from tiny venues and have practically no presence on pay-per-view, but they have an ace up their sleeve.

The company is owned by Viacom, the world's sixth largest broadcasting and cable company, which gives them as many, if not more, resources than any of the other horses in the race.

Whether or not Lesnar's future is in a wrestling ring or an MMA cage is anyone's guess at this point. The only thing we know for sure is that Lesnar might be the luckiest man in combat sports.

**Article originally appeared on MMA Kanvas

http://mmakanvas.ninemsn.com.au/articles/news/2821/is-brock-lesnar-coming-back-to-the-ufc.html

MMA 'bad boy' Nick Diaz still has something to prove

UFC 183 headliner Nick Diaz (26-9-1NC) is one of the biggest names in MMA, and not primarily for his feats inside the Octagon. 

Coming into his fourteenth year as a professional fighter, Diaz has been there and done that. His career has taken him to a hatful of promotions, with the California native spending time with Pride, Strikeforce, Elite XC, WEC, Shooto and Dream.

He’s captured gold before, as the WEC and Strikeforce welterweight champion, although the UFC belt has evaded him. 

Diaz is both loved and hated in equal measure. There is no questioning his image as the "bad boy of MMA", with his fans enjoying his brash, loudmouth attitude, as the fighter who shoots from the hip more often than not.

Whether it’s his high profile feud with UFC president Dana White or his apparent ‘disrespect’ ofGeorges St-Pierre (GSP), his multiple retirements, numerous failed drug tests or no showing media events, Diaz certainly knows how to create controversy. 

His style is known to rub some fight fans the wrong way, with many considering him nothing more than a loud mouth who knows how to talk a big fight, but not necessarily win one.

But for every detractor, there’s a member of Team Diaz who find his approach to the fight-game refreshing. Diaz’s ‘anti-authority’ approach has captured fight fans' imagination and it is this following that has seen him headline some of the UFC’s biggest events, as he does again this Sunday against the returning Anderson Silva (33-6).

Sunday’s fight is a watershed moment for Diaz, with the Silva fight giving him the opportunity to make big dollars and a victory could put him on course for another title shot, either in the middleweight or his more natural welterweight division. 

It’s the golden ticket for a fighter that has a habit for getting in his own way. Diaz retired after his last fight with Georges St Pierre, in which he lost the five-round title fight via unanimous decision. 

Diaz blamed the judges and promptly walked away, as he did in the fight before, another loss against Carlos Condit, that time for the interim belt. Again Diaz blamed the judges, and again the retirement proved only short term. 

After announcing his departure from the UFC after falling to GSP (25-2), UFC president Dana White said he’d soon be back, "when the money runs out."

Diaz has become a highly skilled fighter, starting his mixed-martial arts career practising Karate and Aikido from a young age, alongside his brother and fellow UFC fighter Nate Diaz. He soon transitioned into Sambo and Freestyle Wrestling, before switching his attention to Brazilian Jiu Jitsu (BJJ), where he gained a black belt under Cesar Gracie.

The Mexican-American made his professional debut in 2001 at the age of 18, winning his first fight via triangle choke. Diaz would win his first title in his second fight, defeating the veteran Chris Lytle (31-18-5) to win the IFC Welterweight championship.

He would go undefeated in his first four fights, before tasting defeat to Jeremy Jackson (9-5) at IFC Cage Warriors Challenge 18, having fought two fights earlier that night in the one-night tournament. 

The setback would be put behind him, by claiming his first major championship, the WEC Welterweight championship against Joe Hurley (12-5). He’d follow that with redemption against Jackson, winning both the rematch and rubber match, the later taking in his UFC debut, after signing with the organisation in mid-2003.

He would impress early in his UFC career, defeating Robbie Lawler (25-10-1), losing on a split decision to Karo Parisyan (24-11-1), before rebounding with wins against Koji Oishi (25-10-10) and Drew Fickett (42-21).

Diaz impressed many with his action packed fights as fans became accustomed to his explosive style, both in the Octagon and on the microphone. 

The fighter was becoming known for his blatant disrespect of fighters, using the press and official UFC events to publicly ridicule each opponent. That may have proved his undoing however, as Diaz would lose his next three fights, to Diego Sanchez (25-7), Joe Riggs (40-15-1) and Sean Sherk (36-4-1), which would see him temporarily leave the UFC.

He’d be granted a reprieve soon after filling in after Thiago Alves (20-9) become ill before his fight at UFC 62. Diaz would mark his return with a win, and making it back to back victories in his next fight at UFC 65.

Despite the improved results, the UFC didn’t move to resign the fighter, showing the first signs of what would become a ‘touchy’ relationship between the pair. 

Diaz would prove it an opportunity lost for the Zuffa owned organisation, losing just one fight in his next fourteen, plying his trade across Pride, Elite XC, Dream and Strikeforce organisations. 

It was Diaz’s performances, along with emerging fighters such as Jake Shields (31-7-1-1NC), Ronda Rousey (10-0) and Gilbert Melendez (22-4) that would take Strikeforce to record ratings and a big following, with now Bellator president, Scott Coker giving the UFC some real competition. 

Diaz continued to add to his legions of fans with his brashness, and as always, wasn’t too far from controversy.

In this time he would become equally adept at self promotion. Every story needs a bad guy and Diaz showed all he was happy to play the role. 

But, unexpectedly, Diaz would soon be back under the UFC banner. Zuffa would purchase Strikeforce and as a result acquire the contract of the organisations welterweight champion. 

Despite the animosity, UFC president Dana White honoured the contract and the two committed to building a relationship, which would soon make each of them a lot of money.

Diaz was thrown to the wolves, with MMA legend BJ "The Prodigy" Penn (16-10-2) first up in his second return to the Octagon. Diaz would prove too good however, taking the fight on a unanimous decision.

The Carlos Condit (29-8) and GSP fights would follow, but they’d be met with roadblocks.

Diaz would be suspended for a year after testing positive to marijuana after his fight with Condit, whilst he had his initial shot at GSP cancelled after he failed to show up to a pre-fight press conference, after missing numerous scheduled flights. 

Despite these troubles, the UFC persevered as he sells tickets and his name ensures a substantial buy rate and fan investment. 

Sunday’s fight still presents many questions. Arguably one of the UFC’s best, "The Spider" Silva, makes his return after a horrendous leg break. Most questions linger around the health of Silva and whether at age 39 he can return to his former glory.

But the subplot of Diaz is intriguing. Is the fighter following a similar pathway to a fighter like Chael Sonnen (28-14-1)? “The American Gangster” is remembered as much for being a mouthpiece to get turnstiles spinning, as being known for the headlines he created actually fighting inside the Octagon.

It’s a chance for the 31-year-old to show he truly belongs at the elite level of the sport.

Is Diaz worthy of the main event or is he simply a sideshow? Sunday is when we find out.

** Article originally appeared on MMA Kanvas

http://mmakanvas.ninemsn.com.au/articles/news/2703/mma-bad-boy-nick-diaz-still-has-something-to-prove.html

Football the stuff of dreams

IT’S the 56th minute in Porto Alegre and Socceroo skipper Mile Jedinak has just fired the Socceroos 2-1 ahead over the Netherlands, my friend and I are in the stands, and we’re going crazy, as we scream to each other, ‘‘How good is this!’’.

In that moment I think back to 1997, where I was left in my lounge room in tears from a second half capitulation at the hands of Iran, which robbed us of a World Cup berth at the final hurdle.

Even to this day it still hurts, and I often ask myself, what might have been.

Revenge may just arrive on home soil in this Asian Cup, but I doubt it will heal the wound.

The point of all this, is the fact for so long just making the World Cup was a pipedream, yet back in June, we stood within half an hour of taking down the 2010 World Cup runners-up, and the side who would eventually finish third.

For so long we just wanted to be a part of it, and for many nations the Asian Cup is simply a chance to belong.

Tournaments like the Asian Cup are magical, because more often than not, the unexpected happens.

Take Iraq in 2007, then and still a country in turmoil, their squad had been weakened, with players taking political asylum in foreign lands whilst on tour. Families of the players were tortured as a result to get them home, and perhaps as a deterrent to those who remained.

Yet somehow this nation, who no one gave a hope to, not only downed the highly rated Socceroos, but went on to lift the trophy.


Palestine, who we watched here in Newcastle on Monday against Japan, is the feel good story of this edition. Their struggles are well known, and it’s a triumph that their football side is even here at the Asian Cup. They were only recognised as an independent state by FIFA back in 1998. It’s their first top-tier tournament and they booked their place by winning the AFC Challenge Cup in May.

Football is somewhat insignificant, when you look at the wider context involving Palestine, but it offers so many hope of a brighter future.

It offers hope to a child on the West Bank, that when he looks down at the crest of his jersey, he knows it means something. Those players are playing for him, and if he practices hard, and has a bit of luck, one day he could be one of them.

Just like the dreams I had in 1997. Sadly, I never became a Socceroo, but I got to the World Cup and I wore my colours with pride.

There’s simply nothing like travelling overseas in support of your country. The long walk to the stadium, is full of colour.

You sing like you never have before. We will for that excitement from the fans of other nations over the next few weeks.

And as a fan for the next 90 or so minutes, there’s no place you’d rather be. You ride every pass, tackle and cover your eyes with every shot on goal, and for that 90 minutes, you belong.

You boo, scream and battle the opposition in the stands, just as fiercely as the players are on the pitch. But at full-time, you shake hands, take photos and head to the nearest watering hole, to either drown your sorrows or celebrate victory.

Who cares about the Asian Cup?

Four hundred and eighty four million people in 80 countries watched the final between Japan and Australia in 2011, and the 2015 final is expected to be viewed by over 900 million. Asia routinely provides the biggest viewing audience for the World Cup and top European leagues, such as the Premier League.

The cup is here on our doorstep. After Monday night’s match, Newcastle still has three more games.

Don’t miss your opportunity to be a part of it.

My most treasured memories of the World Cup in Brazil was the interaction with opposition fans, learning their chants, hearing their stories and being inspired at what it took for each of them to be there.

That’s the magic of football.

Asian Cup no easy street for the Socceroos

It might be the fact that Australia’s time in the Asian Football Confederation is still in its infancy, but the perception is that the Socceroos are destined for the Asian Cup final.

In reality, it is going to be a lot harder than people think.

Big things are expected of the home country, and with expectation comes pressure. As if the Socceroos needed any more of that on their shoulders.

Ange Postecoglou’s men have been in abysmal form in recent times as the country free falls in the FIFA rankings. For the record, we’re currently sitting at 101, our lowest ever and just below Macedonia, Mozambique and Antigua and Barbuda.

The FIFA rankings have long been viewed as a joke, and I put about as much credence in them as I do the McDonalds Healthy Choice menu, but the ranking does highlight how far we’ve fallen in such a short time.

It’s not just the players under pressure either, with Postecoglou well and truly starting to wear out the public’s optimism.

In the 19 games under his tutelage the Socceroos have won four, drawn five and lost ten.


Our last four fixtures have all been against Asian opposition, and we’ve won just one of them.


A 3-2 win over Saudi Arabia in September, was followed by a 0-0 draw with the United Arab Emirates, before back to back defeats, losing 1-0 to Qatar and 2-1 to Japan.

Postecoglou has been experimenting with different players throughout this time but, to be fair, the nucleus of the squad has remained the same as have the results - disappointing.

It follows a World Cup which was strangely met with optimism despite losing all three games and conceding nine goals.

Our bad luck in the World Cup draw, which landed us Spain, Netherlands and Chile, has followed us into the Asian Cup.


Make no mistake, we’re in a difficult group. Sure we should progress, but it’s not a fait accompli.

Oman, Kuwait and South Korea have all beaten us in recent years. Oman managed a 1-0 win and 2-2 draw during the last World Cup qualification, Kuwait beat us 1-0 in Canberra in 2009 and South Korea are one of the toughest in Asia.

All have pace in their ranks, which have long proven an Achilles heel for the Socceroos back four.

Defence is the biggest hole that Postecoglou has to somehow fill. We can find the back of the net at least while Tim Cahill is still around, having scored 25 goals in our last 19, but it’s the other end of the pitch that causes issues.

We’ve conceded 32 goals in our 19 games under Ange, an average of 1.64 per game.

Injury has hampered Ange’s ability to settle on a central defensive pairing with Matthew Spiranovic and Trent Sainsbury spending time on the sidelines, allowing Alex Wilkinson to rise in favour. Jason Davidson has hardly featured at West Brom since the World Cup, whilst Ivan Franjic has had a similar experience with his move to Russia.

Whilst many are saying that home ground advantage will be enough for the Socceroos to get over the line, it remains to be seen just how much a help it is given the media spotlight is also a brighter one on home soil.

Getting out of the group will prove a challenge, and one the Socceroos should accomplish. But what’s most important is that we finish top of the group, so we avoid reigning Asian champions Japan until the final.

Finishing second in the group would mean we meet the Japanese in a semi-final in Newcastle, a silver lining for Novocastrians but not so much for the Socceroos chances.

We all know Japan’s quality and we all get to witness it first-hand when they open their title defence against Palestine on Monday. Any side with the likes of Honda, Kagawa, Endo and Nagotomo will take some stopping.

Iran is a real chance, and they’ve flown under the radar a little in the expert’s predictions.


They are the number one ranked side in Asia for a reason and impressed at the World Cup, where they stretched eventual finalists Argentina all the way.


The Asian Cup promises so much for football in Australia. It’s an opportunity for the game to continue to grow in the leaps and bounds it has in recent years, exposing our appetite for football and the growing Asian influence on it.

Newcastle has a tremendous opportunity that doesn’t come often, hosting four games. The city will see two pool matches and a semi-final which could involve the Socceroos or even Japan-South Korea, plus the third and fourth playoff.

The Socceroos weren’t performing well before the last Asian Cup last time, and should have won it, so don’t give up all hope. But if a racehorse showed this form before a big race, you’d probably send it to the glue factory rather than plonking down your hard earned.

As a Socceroos fan, I’d love nothing more than seeing Mile Jedinak lift the trophy come January 28 in Sydney. But the Socceroos must show a tonne of improvement for that to become a reality.

*Article originally appeared in the Newcastle Herald