Mayweather v Guerrero Preview - "It's May Day for Guerrero"

 

 

Most men who leave jail worry where their next pay cheque will come from, but Floyd “Money” Mayweather is not like most men.

Mayweather walked from a two month spell in prison into a $100 million dollar four fight deal with Showtime, which makes him the highest paid athlete in sports.

The 36-year-old plans for four fights in 30 months before walking off into the sunset to a life of promoting, music producing and whatever else he desires.

But as his long time adversary and once rival for the pound for pound title, Manny Pacquiao knows even the most bulletproof of plans can come unstuck in the world of Boxing.

Cotto, Ortiz, Mosley, Marquez, Hatton and De La Hoya all said they were the fighters who would end the run of Floyd “Money” Mayweather, yet he remains unstopped at 43-0, with Robert Guerrero the latest in line to stop the fastest hands, and mouth in the business.

Guerrero is a five-time World Champion across four weight divisions and has some handy names on his resume. Australia’s own Michael Katsidis, Vicente Escobedo, Joel Casamayor and Andre Berto the biggest, but it will still be a herculean effort to stop Mayweather.

But Guerrero only needs to look at Tim Bradley for evidence that it can be done. Bradley defeated Manny Pacquiao although controversially last year, when everyone thought a Pacquiao win was fait accompli.

Guerrero can bang that’s no question, but laying a glove on Mayweather is another thing all together. The best defensive fighter we’ve seen for a long time, Mayweather may not often leave opponents on their back, but has bludgeoned some of the biggest names of the sport with wide point’s victories. Leaving many wishing he had put them out of their misery far early with a knockout.

Whilst there was clear evidence of Pacquiao slowing in his recent fights with Juan Manuel Marquez, there is no real suggestion that father time is catching up with Mayweather. His jail term doesn’t seem to have had any real impact on his physical health and despite Mayweather admitting he did receive an unnecessary amount of punishment in his last fight against Miguel Cotto, there is reason for this. Cotto is a future hall of famer and was much more accustomed to the Junior Middleweight Weight Limit they fought at.

Guerrero meets Mayweather at Welterweight, where Floyd has done his best work and seems most comfortable. Guerrero has also bounced around the weight divisions, fighting as a lightweight as recently as September 2011. A fighter with a heavy punch and clear knockout power at the lighter weights, that power seems to have been negated through his rise up the weight classes, with Guerrero not possessing a knockout in his last five fights or at all at Welterweight.

Being a Southpaw, Guerrero will come at Mayweather with angles he is not all too familiar having only fought a handful of lefties in his career,  but if Mayweather uses his hand speed and silky skills and fights at a distance, I see no reason it won’t be another victory for Floyd.

Boxing needs a Mayweather victory, now more than ever the sport needs a marquee name on everyone’s lips. A quarter million people will be in town for this fight and it will generate over $100 million dollars in revenue to the city of Las Vegas, and they are all to see one man.

Mayweather will earn $32 million dollars just for lacing up the gloves, and even more money when his slice of the Pay Per View revenue is calculated. Guerrero will earn $3 million, a career high.

With this fight being fight one of a four fight deal, potential opponents are being sought as marquee names continue to drift of the boxing map.

Pacquaio,Cotto, Mosley, Hatton, Margarito, etc are no longer as marketable and the likes of Alvarez, Trout and Bradley don’t yet feel ready to take over Mayweather’s mantle. 

A potential fight with Pacquaio has been hurt given the Pilipino fighter losing his last two fights ( should have been three), and although the fight would still do good business, it would pale in comparison to what it might have been. Looking at it from a Risk v Reward scheme of things, if Mayweather was tentative to take the fight previously when figures of $100 million were offered, both fighters would stand to earn far less if the fight was made now.

Boxing seems to be building to an eventual Floyd Mayweather v Saul Alvarez super fight, but with Alvarez still only 22 and is still yet to have a real “Marquee” name on his kill list, despite looking impressive recently against Austin Trout. Golden Boy Promotions and Boxing may not want to burn their future star before he is ready.

If anything I see a Mayweather v Alvarez fight as the final fight of the four fight deal, but questions remain as to who Mayweather will step in the ring with if he defeats Guerrero.

Tim Bradley, Austin Trout, Juan Manuel Marquez, Amir Khan all should keep the money rolling in and remain credible opponents, but can any really trump Mayweather.

Robert Guerrero stands in the perfect position to send all future plans down the drain with an upset win on Sunday, and stop the search for Boxing’s next superstar, but in a city where the house always wins, sometimes you’re on a hiding to nothing.

Prediction – Mayweather by decision

Follow Adam on Twitter - @adamsantarossa