Canelo-Khan: Speed kills, but brute force the difference

The fight the boxing world wants to see is Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez against Gennady Golovkin.

It's the only realistic 'super fight' boxing has left, despite the heavyweight scene currently seeing a resurgence.

The only problem is, once again, politics and promoters get in the way.

Last week Golovkin fought Dominic Wade, and annihilated him, as everyone expected.

Canelo will fight Amir Khan this Sunday.

When Golovkin vanquished David Lemieux in October last year, most thought GGG would next fight the winner of Cotto-Canelo.

But here we are, and no progress has been made.

Canelo is the heir apparent, destined to take over the throne of Boxing's King.

It's hard to believe he is still only 25-years-old.

Already he's taken on Floyd Mayweather, Miguel Cotto, Shane Mosley and co.

He should be fighting Golovkin.

In the fight game matchups are made using the risk/reward formula, and Khan looks like a good fight for Canelo with this in mind.

Khan is a financial draw. He's built his name as an exciting fighter and has a diverse fan base from both Britain and parts of Asia, given his heritage.

But, his best work has been done as a Lightweight and Light Welterweight. It was only in December 2014 that he stepped up to the Welterweight limit. Now he steps up almost three divisions to take on Canelo.

On the face of it, Khan seems like a safe bet for Canelo. He's a name fighter, with a suspect chin, not known for his knockout power and someone fighting way out of his weight class.

But Khan's best asset is speed and it's the very asset that has shown to be Canelo's Achilles heel.

We saw Canelo exposed somewhat in the Floyd Mayweather fight, with the Mexican unable to deal with Mayweather’s hand speed and movement. He struggled to close the distance and looked sluggish, without throwing anything of note.

Even most recently against Miguel Cotto, the Puerto Rican won the early rounds using his jab and speed to fight on the outside. It wasn't until Cotto tired did the fight come back to the Mexican.

There’s a multimillion dollar carrot dangling for Canelo after this fight, with pressure to make a Golovkin fight mounting, but he risks that substantial pay day against Amir Khan.

The fact Khan is fighting at Middleweight for the 160 pound title* is ludicrous.

The fight itself will be fought at an agreed weight of 155 pounds, given Canelo's ( and Miguel Cotto's) appetite for not fighting at Middleweight, despite being a Middleweight World Champion.

Canelo has always been marked as an elite fighter, with the potential to go to the next level. We've all been waiting for him to assume the mantle and it seems like he's finally comfortable wearing it.

He gave us some doubts in his performance against Mayweather, but to be fair - he was only 23 at the time.

Canelo showed he had matured is his fight with Cotto and had he pressed a bit more, he could have got Cotto out of there earlier than a decision victory.

Khan’s only hope of winning would have to be a decision victory and I expect him to fight on the outside, score and then stay out of range. If he gets caught on the inside, and Canelo lands, it could be a very short night.

The Khan fight will do reasonable business. But it's not the fight boxing fans want to see.

It's time boxing learnt that if you don't give fans what they want, they'll go somewhere where they can get it. Namely, the UFC.

I expect Canelo to win on Sunday, but should he come unstuck, plans to tackle Golovkin will take a massive nose dive.

Not good news for Canelo or the sport of Boxing.

ADAM SANTAROSSA

The reason Conor McGregor is 'retiring'

Conor McGregor shocked the world this week when he announced his ‘retirement’ at just 27.

But why the sudden move? Particularly when you’re set to headline the biggest UFC pay-per-view in history, in UFC200.

We’re yet to hear the reasons behind the move, but I think the reasons why are fairly clear.

McGregor failed to return to the United States for promotional duties ahead of UFC200, instead choosing to remain at his training camp in Iceland.

Conor is clearly aggrieved at the fact he has to do more promoting, when you can argue he’s been the only one doing so for the last twelve months.

It’s worth remembering that Conor McGregor’s last year in the sport was unprecedented.

In fact, he hasn’t stopped since September 2014 – when you consider each fight is generally preceded by a three month training camp.

Following his September 2014 win over Dustin Poirer, he rolled straight into a January 18 fight with Denis Siver.

This is also around the time that the UFC launched their partnership with Reebok, with McGregor front and centre as part of the deal. The Irishman also walked away with a tidy side deal, as one of a few UFC stars to hold a separate sponsorship deal with the company.

From there it was onto a lengthy multinational press tour to promote his fight with Jose Aldo.

Of course, that was set down for July 11, only for Aldo to withdraw, sighting a broken rib.

Chad Mendes had to be called up as a late injury replacement and although McGregor won the fight, he was taken down numerous times, all by a guy that took the fight on two weeks notice.

There were claims following the fight that McGregor carried a significant knee injury into the event, and also reports he had stopped training, anticipating a postponement, which then made cutting to the Featherweight limit harder than it needed to be – affecting performance.

Following his scratchy win over Mendes he’d go on to take part in The Ultimate Fighter series against Urijah Faber. This meant more weeks away from home.

Reports at the time suggested McGregor was close to walking away from his TUF commitment; however he came to a financial deal with the UFC which prevented this.

Strangely the McGregor-Faber series saw no fight between rival coaches, as is generally the case.

From there it was a December 12 fight with Aldo, which again was coupled with a lengthy press tour.

He then went straight back into camp, then scheduled for a March 5 fight for the Lightweight Title against Rafael Dos Anjos.

Yet again the fight would fall apart, with Dos Anjos pulling out with a fractured foot.

The UFC would draft in Nate Diaz as the replacement - who promptly arrives, spits out a few swear words and walks out with a million dollars, after submitting McGregor early in the second round- putting a large dent in future plans of the UFC and Conor McGregor.

2015 was a good year for McGregor and so far 2016 has followed suit, at least financially.

No one has made more money, no one has brought the UFC more pay-per-view dollars.

 But whilst McGregor continues to break records, it’s the UFC who take the lion’s share of revenue - grossing over $600 million in revenue for the past year – which is another sore point for the Irishman.

 

For the McGregor-Aldo fight, the UFC made over $10 million off the live gate alone, not to mention the 1.2 million pay-per-views buys at around $50 a pop.

For the McGregor-Diaz fight, the UFC made over $8 million off the gate, with 1.6 million pay-per-view sales, according to UFC President Dana White.

UFC don’t release the figures, but you’d be looking at somewhere between $60-$80 million profit for the Zuffa owned organisation off each event.

It’s estimated that McGregor made around $8 million dollars for his fight with Jose Aldo at UFC194, and closer to $10 million against Nate Diaz at UFC196, including an unprecedented $1 million show purse. This is total revenue, fight purse and pay-per-view money combined.  

Most would consider these earnings to be pretty good and they are to the everyman, but they don’t stack quite as well when placed up against other combat sports.

Miguel Cotto walked away with $15 million for his Middleweight World Title fight with Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez, who made $7 million, and all this before pay-per-view revenue was included.

That fight sold over 900,000 pay-per-view sales, ensuring both men would have earned substantially more.  

Floyd ‘Money’ Mayweather had a ‘minimum guarantee’ of $32 million for his fight with Andre Berto, his lowest performing pay-per-view in some years. Berto, the challenger, earned $4 million, before his slice of pay-per-view.

Mayweather is Mayweather, but you could argue Cotto and Canelo are not as well known on the world scene as Conor McGregor.

 But if you factor in Cotto’s $15 million dollar purse, plus expected pay-per-view slice, he would have earned more money for one fight, than Conor McGregor did in two events.

Two events mind you that generated the second and third most pay-per-view sales in UFC history, and set a new gate receipt record.  

So simply put. Conor McGregor is doing all the promotion, and generating all the revenue, but it’s the UFC who’s taking home the largest slice of the pie.

Hence our current predicament.

McGregor played his card by no showing UFC200, so Dana White yanked him from the event. 

It's a ploy at negotiating a larger slice of the financial pie, that McGregor feels he deserves. 

Let’s hope they find some common ground soon enough, because things could get very interesting if they don’t.

ADAM SANTAROSSA 

Cotto v Canelo: The big fight that will live up to the hype

Sunday’s fight between Miguel Cotto (40-4-0) and Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez (47-1-1) is what boxing is all about.

Two of the best fighters in the world clashing in a fight mostly devoid of the usual politics that comes along with the sport.

Boxing generally has a habit of getting in its own way and we saw an example of that this week, with Cotto stripped of the WBC Middleweight Title for failing to pay $300,000 in sanctioning fees.  

Canelo can still claim the title should he win the fight, but the lack of the WBC strap doesn’t take the shine off this fight whatsoever.

With the Mayweather-Pacquiao sideshow almost gone, Cotto and Canelo have stepped up in their absence.

The only fight in boxing today that is bigger is probably Gennady Golovkin against the winner, that’s if Cotto and Canelo actually have interest in fighting him.

Had you sold me a Cotto-Alvarez fight three years ago, it would have looked very different.

Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez was the next king of boxing, whilst Miguel Cotto was slowly losing the race against father time, seemingly destined to embark on a career trajectory similar to Mosley, Maragrito and Co.

But strangely in the last two years, the tables have turned.

Miguel Cotto has sparked new life into his career, in a new division, whilst Canelo has still yet to really show he is capable of carrying boxing’s crown, with the doubters growing all the time.

It all looked so promising for Canelo. As a 23-year-old he was undefeated in 44 career fights, and landed the biggest prize in the game, a shot at Floyd ‘Money’ Mayweather. 

The Mayweather fight came a little too soon for Canelo. He was fed to the wolves in a way.

Mayweather was running out of options to fight and Canelo was next in line. Golden Boy (Canelo’s promotional company) accepted the risk, knowing that if Canelo did pull off a victory, well they’d have the goose with the golden egg.

But of course we now know that Canelo wasn’t good enough to beat Mayweather and in fact the fight showed he probably wasn’t ready for it either.

The fight left you feeling that Canelo was still morphing from potential star to superstar and left you thinking, ‘what a fighter he’ll be in a few years time’.

But here we are now a few years down the line and in my opinion Canelo still hasn’t become that fighter, yet. There’s no denying he is a star, but he’s yet to become the star he was touted to be.

His fight with Miguel Cotto could be that coming out party, and there’s big pressure on the Mexican fighter to ensure it is.   

Canelo has had 47 fights, but he doesn’t fight like someone with that many rounds under his belt. Looking at his record, he’s only really had a few high profile fights. Cotto on the other hand has toiled at the elite level for years.

Canelo fought Shane Mosley back in 2012, when it is safe to say Mosley had seen better days. Austin Trout was an up and comer, but Canelo showed he was in a different class. The loss to Mayweather followed, and since then it’s been a rebuild of the Alvarez brand.

Sure, Erislandy Lara and James Kirkland are no pushovers, but they are not Miguel Cotto.

Cotto on the other hand has been in the ring with everyone. Mosley, Margarito, Pacquiao, Mayorga, Mayweather, Trout and Martinez.

It is this experience that his trainer Freddie Roach says will be the difference, and I tend to agree.

Cotto has been in wars. He’s had to dig deep and find something within himself in the championship rounds. We can’t yet say the same for Canelo.

Of Cotto’s four career losses, two have been to Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao, the third was to Antonio Margarito, who was later found to be using loaded gloves.

The loss to Austin Trout was a major shock and led to Cotto linking with Roach at the Wildcard Gym.  That decision has revived the Puerto Rican fighter.

This most recent incarnation of Cotto is some fighter. Moving up a division* has reinvigorated the 35-year-old.

He is back to his destructive best, with three stoppage wins in his last three fights.

Some will punch holes in those fights. Delvin Rodriguez and Daniel Geale aren’t elite level fighters, whilst Sergio Martinez was not as his best, with injury playing his part.

But Cotto can only beat what’s in front of him and he has done so in devastating fashion.

Freddie Roach’s training has seen Cotto resemble the killer of the late 2000’s with the famed punching power back.

Floyd Mayweather came out recently and said Cotto was the only fighter to ever hurt him. If Cotto brings the intense style he has shown in the last three fights, I don’t think Canelo can handle it.

One thing that can be guaranteed is that Cotto-Canelo will live up to the hype. Both fighters bring action, both won't die wondering.

It's must see on Sunday.  

PREDICTION: I think Cotto wins. I just haven’t seen Canelo go to that next level. Some betting companies in Australia have Cotto at $8.80 to win via TKO, its handy odds!

Miguel Cotto v Saul Alvarez, Sunday 1pm AEST on MAIN EVENT PPV

Mundine v Green: Sliding Doors

Despite the fact that the continued debate around an Anthony Mundine-Danny Green rematch makes boxing purists in Australia cringe, the clash is still the biggest fight in the country.

It will happen eventually, and it’s what I’ve been saying ever since they squared off last time.

The rematch is a money fight. It captures the public’s interest, and it will do good business for all involved. 

Whether it goes above and beyond the first encounter, it’s hard to say, but given the experience of Mundine-Green in selling a fight, they’ll make enough noise to fill the seats.

When the fight will happen is the biggest unknown. It could happen as soon as early 2016 or it could be this time next year. 

It’s a true case of sliding doors, with one fighter’s movements directly affecting the other, and crucially in the sport of boxing, timing is everything.

In terms of how the fight will go – I still think Anthony Mundine is the winner. He’s just a better fighter, as was shown in the first fight.

That’s not to be disrespectful to Danny Green, because I think he has a better chance of winning the rematch than he ever did in the initial encounter.

Weight is the biggest obstacle to overcome. Mundine is currently fighting as a Junior Middleweight and Green is several weight classes away at Cruiserweight.

The light-heavyweight mark, or at least a catch weight around that territory, is the likely outcome the fighters will arrive at.

Green hasn’t seemed interested in getting near that mark mind you in his most recent comeback, and if he wants to place pressure on Mundine and seize control in their continued PR battle, hitting the light-heavyweight limit would be a good start.

Obviously Green will want to fight as heavy as possible, given the added weight favours him. He’s a bigger puncher and has the bigger frame, but it’s not the only way he’ll benefit.

The higher the weight class, the more Mundine will lose in speed - his biggest asset - as a consequence of carrying more. Sure he’ll probably bring increased punching power, going up in weight, but when was the last time The Man knocked someone out.

I also think Danny Green has become a better boxer since moving from the Super Middleweight division.

He was known for his come forward approach, and he would just go through guys - case in point, his first fight with Markus Beyer.

But moving up the weights, he didn’t have the advantage in power or size anymore. This has meant he’s had to pick his shots, go to the outside increasingly and he's become a better boxer and more rounded. 

His fight with Krystof Wlodarczyk is the best example of that, despite the way it ended.  

So I really think the pair are more closely matched now as fighters than they were in the first fight.

Anthony Mundine fights Charles Hatley on November 11, whilst Danny Green fights Konni Konrad on December 2.

If Mundine loses to Hatley, I think the next fight he signs is the Green rematch.

But the big fight that the Mundine camp will have their eye on will be the highly anticipated clash between Miguel Cotto and Canelo Alvarez on November 22.

The Mundine camp are no doubt eyeing off the loser, with the winner likely to move on to either a mega fight with Gennady Golovkin or the ‘retired’ Floyd Mayweather.

Mundine’s camp has also said they’d be willing to jump in with Golovkin, as ridiculous as that sounds. But if Daniel Geale can score a fight with Golovkin, there’s no reason Mundine can’t deal his way into an opportunity.

Golovkin could even use such a fight to test the waters in the junior middleweight ranks, with the likelihood of both Cotto and Canelo making him come down in weight to face them. The Golovkin camp would see Mundine as a name fighter, who to them doesn’t really bring considerable risk at upsetting future plans.

*Cotto-Canelo fighting for Middleweight title, but will fight closer to Junior Middleweight as contracted. 

Many see hand speed and slickness as to the Golovkin kryptonite, and maybe that’s where Mundine fancies his chances. But I think people are mad to underestimate Golovkin’s boxing ability. Eastern European fighters are skilled in the fundamental elements of boxing – a good jab and tight defence – it’s why they are great Amateurs.

 Golovkin has superb head movement and when he makes you miss, he truly makes you pay.

So there are some potential options for Mundine, depending on how other fights go around him, but there are also cards for Danny Green to play.

I think Green is picking opponents to test himself, but not hamper his marketability.

Domestically he’s not short of people calling him out. Whilst there are some tasty fights there, Green knows a loss will hurt the appeal of the Mundine fight. So he’s not taking the risk, given the financial reward will be much less.

A potential fight with Sakio Bika would be worth watching, but that would only be a possibility if Mundine continued to drag his heels well into next year.

Interestingly though for Green, Roy Jones announced he’ll fight for the WBA Super World Cruiserweight Title against Enzo Maccarinelli in Moscow on December 12.

There’s money in a Jones-Green rematch and if it’s for a ‘World Title’, it’s even easier to sell. Roy Jones just may want some redemption after his KO defeat to Green back in 2009. It could soon loom on the radar, if the cards fall a particular way.

Mundine and Green will fight before they hang up the gloves, there’s no question of that. When it happens, well there’s a lot of water to go under the bridge yet.

It could all change at any moment. If you’re one of those people that wishes the column inches devoted to the match up would just end, well strap yourself in, because it’s only going to ramp up in the coming months.

Some will say it's time to move on, others will say it's time to throw down. 

Whatever our opinion, we'll all be watching, whether we like it or not. 

ADAM SANTAROSSA